Summary of Economic Briefing on 13 March 2008 - download here
North Shore Prospectus - download here
Powerpoints from speakers - download here
NORTH SHORE ECONOMIC RE-DIRECTION STARTING TODAY
A systematic roll-out of measures aimed at collating crucial information and encouraging enterprise clusters within North Shore City will begin from today.
In the wake of last week’s historic economic summit to engage the city’s high growth sector players in a groundbreaking new economic direction, Enterprise North Shore is poised to start implementing its new focus with help from the 200 businesspeople who attended the highly successful North Harbour Stadium event.
Enterprise North Shore chief executive Terry Hoskins says the specially invited group will be amongst the first to complete online business intelligence surveys, with further appeals to the wider North Shore business community for information in the next few months.
Sector-based workshops in the priority groups of education, health, high tech and sport will be held in April and May, offering an insight into emerging trends and imminent developments, and introducing a Business Economic Impact Calculator to city businesspeople, Mr Hoskins says.
From then, a ‘business as usual’ scenario will be developed, from which alternative scenarios based on key growth and targeted Enterprise North Shore sectors will be formulated.
“We will then undertake an evaluation of infrastructural, social and environmental implications of these scenarios, identifying possible trade-offs and other implications,” Mr Hoskins says.
The survey results will be fed into an innovative and unique economic futures model developed by Takapuna-based Market Economics Ltd, which will help the city understand the sustainable economic future – being sensitive to the environmental, social and cultural impacts – of three scenarios for the city:
• Continuing down the same path;
• Choosing a range of interventions to facilitate change;
• Not influencing the change that is occurring.
“The economy isn’t in great shape at the moment, given the events in the world, but North Shore City is well placed to see out the uncertain economic downturn, and Enterprise North Shore will be working hard to see the city rise above the trends and resume its long-term prosperity,” he says.
“To consider this briefing has been crucial to those who have a part in steering North Shore City’s economy through the next 20 years is understating its importance,” Enterprise North Shore chief executive Terry Hoskins says.
“The city has a lot of decisions to make and directions to map out, and this event has gone a long way to providing a call to action for those passionate about the North Shore economy and its path into the coming decades.”
Facilitated by the city’s economic development agency Enterprise North Shore, the event also publicly launched a new North Shore City prospectus expected to promote the city both internally and overseas as a destination to live, work, learn and play.
The prospectus – which includes information on the city’s lifestyle, economic strategy and development, tourism and events, as well as the North Shore’s sunrise industries of high tech, education, health and high performance sport – will be distributed around the world, including to targeted New Zealand High Commissions and other trade organisations.
There are plans to translate the prospectus into several other languages, including Mandarin, Korean and Spanish.
For more information on the meeting, the economic futures model, the prospectus or Enterprise North Shore’s wideranging activities, please go to www.ens.org.nz.
Brief Summaries of Speakers
North Shore Mayor Andrew Williams
A city with high-value, high-skill and job-rich enterprises that are innovative and sustainable is the commitment North Shore City Council sees for the city’s future. Mayor Andrew Williams says there will be a focus on international trading and life-long learning, needing an economy with growth built around its strengths, including:
• Finance and business services
• Information and communications technology
• Niche manufacturing
• Education
• Health
• Retail
• Sport and leisure
• Marine.
The vision for North Shore City includes a highly trained and qualified workforce, Mr Williams says, with clustering of knowledge companies in the North Harbour industrial estate, and knowledge professionals in Takapuna and Albany. There will be investment in new technology developments and technology business parks.
“We want to see a metropolis attracting international migrants, other Aucklanders and New Zealanders.
In terms of city infrastructure, Mr Williams sees the need for:
• Continued road upgrading
• Updated sewage treatment and new outfall
• Ongoing stormwater upgrading
• New bus way
• Urban fibre broadband network
• Additional city parkland
• Community facilities
• Sports facilities and stadia.
North Shore City, Mr Williams says, is consistently ahead of Auckland region and/or New Zealand in terms of resident population growth, GDP growth, employment growth, productivity, business unit growth and business size growth.
Westpac Chief Economist Brendan O’Donovan
New Zealand, says Mr O’Donovan, is being tossed about by awesome forces at the moment. All the pros…strong wages and job security, dairy cash, fiscal largesse and strong economies of Asia and Australia…are being countered by the cons…the household budget squeeze, debt servicing, energy and food price hikes, drought, housing corrections and the US recession and credit markets.
It is this environment, he says, that adds to an ugly inflation outlook, with the housing market looking at a five-year slump.
Mr O’Donovan concentrated on North Shore City’s population environment, saying it is vitally important to business. Ten thousand extra residents support job growth, and also mean:
• 3700 new suburban households, or
• 6700 new inner-city households
• $93 million in new retail spending
• $25 million in new supermarket spending
• $8 million in new takeaway, restaurant and café spend
• Half a Kmart
• One cinema screen
• 7500 cubic metres of pre-mix concrete.
Market Economics Principal Garry McDonald
By the year 2031, Auckland region’s population is projected to grow to 1.93 million people. That represents:
• A growth of 561,000 people
• Growth greater than the entire projected 2031 Wellington Region population of 529,000
• One city the size of Dunedin every five years.
By the year 2050, Auckland will boast more than 50% of New Zealand’s population.
Auckland’s growth issues, Mr McDonald says, are complex and interconnected, but often dealt with in isolation using over-simplified analysis – the result being uninformed decision and policy making.
The Economics Futures Model is a multi-regional economic, social, cultural and environmental impact ‘scenario’ model that evaluates impacts of growth through:
• A five-yearly look at the next 25 years (using 2006 as a base year)
• 48 key industries
• Factors of production (eg capital, labour and imports)
• Consumption (eg household, exports and investment.
“The EFM does not predict, but instead focuses on assessing the consequences under scenarios,” Mr McDonald says.
The Economic Futures Model will help North Shore City to:
• Understand how the North Shore economy ticks, including its key drivers of change
• Assess future economic, social, cultural and environmental opportunities, risks and trade-offs under various scenarios
• Provide a continuously updated baseline scenario against which the city can track sector performance.
From 2006 to 2031, the model will offer a ‘baseline’ business as usual scenario against which other scenarios will be assessed. It will represent the ‘what if’ enterprise relationships, consumer behaviours and investor patterns, and will also allow for emerging trends and imminent developments.
It is expected that the North Shore will:
• Grow its GDP from $6.8 billion in 2006 to $14.6 billion in 2031.
• Attain 2.7% annual average growth
• Boast 160,000 FTEs in 2031, up from 84,000 FTEs
• Achieve a population growth from 216,900 to 288,500.
Enterprise North Shore Project Manager Ian Robertshaw
North Shore City boasts 23,000 businesses within its territory, but only 350 are classified as large. That is one of the reasons why Enterprise North Shore focuses on programmes and activities that include:
• Attracting and retaining enterprises – for example Targeted Business Attraction Programme and new venture creation and innovation
• Education and employment connections – for example Employment and skills programme and Young Enterprise Scheme
• Economic development and acceleration – for example Excellerator, mentors, cluster facilitation, Business Improvement Districts, and support
• Economic information, promotion and excellence – for example Westpac Enterprise North Shore Business Excellence Awards and Business Hall of Fame.
Mr Robertshaw says businesses in North Shore City are encouraged to provide their input into the Economic Futures Model over the coming few months. The EFM is an innovative tool to help boost the city’s economic performance.
World events are expected to adversely affect the New Zealand economy in the short term, but Enterprise North Shore will be working hard to minimise these effects and continue the city’s economic performance above the national norm in the longer term.
